Choose · what to own
Two decisions set what $100,000 becomes: the allocation, then what runs inside its stock sleeve
The allocation: a book of stocks, Treasuries and gold that fits the purpose of the money, with the house counted at a fifth of its value. The overlay: what the stock sleeve holds beyond the index. Every figure is before tax; Implement shows what is kept.
Before taxSimulated, not heldTwo starts, 2006 and 2010
- Asset allocation $694,000from $100,000, 2006 to 2026 Hold stocks, Treasuries and gold in the book that fits the purpose of the money, and count the house Balanced financial independence, 50 / 20 / 30, rebalanced once a year, against $523,000 in a plain 60/40. Each of the three books returned more per unit of risk than 60/40 from a 2006 start and from a 2010 start, and lost 13% to 14% in 2022 against 17%. A house adds a fifth of its value to the stock count. The choice, argued: Asset allocation, 7 reads
- Alpha overlay 22lead changes Own the index as the base; tilt only with both sides of the pair held Growth and value have swapped the lead 22 times since 1972, the longest run 13 years. The 50/50 blend never fell more than 19% behind the market. The choice, argued: Alpha overlay, 1 read
What stays out Long Treasuries and listed real estate 2.8% and 6.1% a year since 2006 for stock-sized swings; neither improved a 60/40 from either start. A household with a house already owns property. Decision 03 · Diversifiers Five percent in a true diversifier cuts the worst fall A 60/40 with 5% in trend following, 1985 to 2025: a shallower worst drawdown and +0.34 points a year. An equity flavor at 5% deepens the fall.
Funds are named as examples of a mechanism, not as recommendations.